Group Earnings
74 - 86 EURm
Leasing New Business
Lower end of range
3.4 - 3.6 EURbn
Underlying parameters for this guidance:
CM2 margin
~ 16.0%
Loss rate
< 2.0%
Cost-income ratio
< 55%
Equity ratio
~ 15%
Return on Equity (ROE) is calculated as the ratio of consolidated group earnings to average equity over a defined period. ROE therefore measures the return generated by invested equity.
The Board of Directors expects to achieve an ROE after taxes of 10 percent by 2030
In January 2024, the Board of Directors announced that it would focus on the leasing business in the future and resolved to initiate the sale of all factoring companies. For this reason, factoring new business is no longer included in the interactive analysis tool.
Leasing new business is defined as the total acquisition cost in euros of all newly concluded lease contracts for a specific period. It shows the development of the leasing portfolio over a defined period (quarter/year). Leasing new business is the source of future income.
For the 2026 financial year, the Board of Directors expects a growth rate in leasing new business of approximately 10 percent. Based on the 2025 financial year, this corresponds to leasing new business of between EUR 3.4 and 3.6 billion. Given the currently challenging market conditions, we currently expect to achieve the lower end of the guidance range.
The ratio of the discounted operating income of all newly concluded lease contracts over the total period (entire term) to the net acquisition value of all new lease contracts within a period. This indicator shows the projected profitability of the newly concluded leasing portfolio.
The target for the 2026 financial year is a CM2 margin of around 16.0 percent. Key factors in achieving this goal include, refinancing costs, the terms of newly signed leasing contracts, and the average ticket size. For the 2026 financial year, the average value per leasing contract is expected to remain around EUR 10,000. The focus on small tickets remains a core part of our strategy.
The Board of Directors’ overall expectation for the 2026 financial year is for continued positive earnings development, comprising net interest income, profit from the service business, profit from new business and gains/losses from disposals.
The strong leasing new business in recent years provides a solid foundation for earnings growth in 2026. The guidance for the 2026 financial year is Group earnings in the range of EUR 74 and 86 million. However, the persistently high volatility in the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment may have a significant impact, particularly on insolvency trends and the resulting potential fluctuations in the loss rate. The current earnings guidance range for the 2026 financial year is therefore based on a full-year loss rate of under 2.0 percent.
The ratio of expenses for the settlement of claims and risk provision for a certain period to the lease volume on the period’s closing date. It reflects the performance of the leasing portfolio in the reporting period.
For the 2026 financial year, the Board of Directors expects a loss rate below 2.0 percent.
Ratio of the sum of operating expense items (staff costs, depreciation and amortisation, selling and administrative expenses) to the sum of income items (operating income before settlement of claims and risk provision). CIR is an indicator of cost efficiency.
Based on these earnings expectations, the cost-income ratio (CIR) is expected to be under 55 percent. In the medium term, we are targeting a CIR of below 55 percent, driven in part by efficiency gains resulting from increasing digitalisation.
For the 2026 financial year, the Board of Directors intends to maintain its long-term dividend policy with a payout ratio of 25 percent.
As a result of the planned development of new business, total lease receivables, which are the basis for interest income, are expected to increase in the 2026 financial year. Total assets are projected to increase accordingly. Based on the anticipated development of Group earnings, grenke is planning with an equity ratio of approximately 15 percent (December 31, 2025: 15.6 percent), thereby meeting both the regulatory and rating requirements. This level serves as a benchmark rather than a strict capital management threshold for the Group.