Key Figures

Get an overview of our key figures.

Guidance 2023 and Outlook 2024

As per November 9, 2023

Key Figures
2023
2024

Leasing New Business

Lower half of EUR 2.6 - 2.8bn

EUR 3.0 - 3.2bn

Group Earnings

Upper half of EUR 80 - 90m

EUR 95 - 115m

Key Figures
2023
Mid-term

CM2-Margin

~ 17%

~ 17%

Loss Rate

< 1.5 %

≤ 1.5 %

Cost-Income-Ratio

Slightly > 55 %

< 55 %

Equity Ratio

> 16 %

≥ 16 %

Interactive Analysis Tool

Assumptions for our guidance

For the 2023 financial year, the Board of Directors expects new leasing business to come in at the lower half of guidance range of EUR 2.6 billion to EUR 2.8 billion. Compared to the previous financial year, this corresponds to an expected growth rate in the range of 13 percent to 17 percent. 

For 2024, the Board of Directors is targeting new leasing business of EUR 3.0 billion to EUR 3.2 billion, while maintaining a focus on balanced margins. With that, the mark of EUR 3.0 billion in new leasing business would be reached for the first time in the history of GRENKE.

In the current financial year, the development of CM2 will continue to be at the centre of our new business management. In the 2023 financial year, we are aiming for a slight increase in the CM2 margin compared to the previous year. The medium-term goal is to achieve a CM2 margin of around 17 percent. The refinancing costs and our conditions in newly concluded leasing contracts are particularly decisive for this, as is the average ticket size. In the 2023 financial year, the average value per lease contract is expected to remain below the EUR 10,000 level. The focus on small tickets will remain an essential part of our growth strategy. In 2023, we intend to achieve double-digit growth across all regions. At the same time, we are continuing to expand our portfolio of objects, but do not expect any significant shifts in object mix in 2023. We want to continue to respond with flexibility to new customer requirements and even offer new asset categories of lease financing. We have already started to do this with products such as eBikes, wallboxes and solar systems as part of the green transformation. The ongoing digital transformation will also enable us to grow in our core areas of IT and office communication at the same time.

The Board of Directors expects that, despite rising interest expenses from the higher interest rate environment, the operating income of the leasing portfolio – consisting of the sum of net interest income after settlement of claims and risk provision, the profit from service business, the profit from new business and gains and losses from disposals – will show a clear positive development in the current 2023 financial year. This assessment is based on the continued strong momentum in new leasing business, the consistent passing on of higher interest rates through contract conditions and the unchanged risk-conscious pricing. The payment behaviour of our customers, which we expect to remain good, and the stability in the related expenses for risk provisioning will also have a positive effect. An increase in staff costs however will have the opposite effect. Staff costs are expected to increase from the rise in salaries due to high inflation and as a result of a continued selective strengthening of our team. In order to continue our successful international expansion strategy, we plan to invest a total of EUR 45 million to EUR 50 million in digitally optimising our entire value chain in over 30 countries over the next three years. We will focus in particular on the relatively new GRENKE subsidiaries in our future core markets of Australia, Canada and the USA. These will all be equipped with state-of-the-art infrastructure right from the outset so they can fully tap the outsized growth potential in those markets. The digitalisation programme is based on a transformation to cloud technology. The investment in this technology marks the largest single initiative, amounting to one-third of the funds invested in the programme. The remaining investments will be distributed across the automation of all downstream core processes in the leasing business. We expect the initial net savings from these investments to materialise as early as 2025. As a result of the programme, additional expenses of an estimated EUR 15 million will be incurred in the 2023 financial year.

The Board of Directors is guiding for Group earnings in the upper half of the range of EUR 80 million and EUR 90 million for the 2023 financial year, taking into account the digitization program. Higher business volume with solid CM2 margins and higher efficiency reflected by an improvement in the cost-income ratio are expected to grow Group earnings significantly again as early as 2024. For the 2024 financial year, the Board of Directors is guiding for Group earnings of EUR 95 million to EUR 115 million.

In the long term, we are striving to achieve a cost-income ratio of below 50 percent as a result of the digitalisation programme and disciplined cost management. In the medium term, the CIR should be below 55 percent. Due to the upfront expenses from the digitalisation programme, the Board of Directors expects the CIR to be slightly above 55 percent in 2023. The expected range of Group earnings for the 2023 financial year is based on the assumption that the loss rate will remain below 1.5 percent. Decisive to achieving this will be the solid leasing portfolio, stable incoming payments from the business concluded in recent quarters and the appropriate and conservative risk provisions already recognised.

The Board of Directors intends to adhere to its longterm dividend policy in the 2023 financial year and ensure that shareholders participate appropriately in the Company’s success.

As a result of the new business development, total lease receivables, which form the basis for interest income, are also expected to rise by a high single-digit percentage range in the 2023 financial year. Total assets are expected to increase accordingly. Based on the expected development of the Group’s earnings, GRENKE expects to achieve – as in prior years – an equity ratio above 16 percent (2022: 20.8 percent).

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